我国气候政策对能源行业水资源需求的影响研究

The energy consumption control and the energy structure reformation are critical measures in dealing with climate change. Since the production and consumption of various kinds of energy rely on water resources as security, the water supply constraints must be integrated comprehensively in designing energy strategies and climate policies. In this study, the impact of the climate policy on the water demand of energy industries would be analyzed, mainly adopting carbon tax as our object for research. Based on literature review, and field study and statistics analysis of key energy industries, a computable general equilibrium model would be built so that the impact of the supposed carbon tax policy in China on national energy demand and structure could be analyzed, with which water consumption coefficients selected according to different energy types and energy production technologies would be combined to evaluate possible impact on demand of water resource of each energy industry. Finally, suggestions on carbon tax design and energy production technology choice would be proposed on the basis of these research results. The output of this research would provide support for scientific decisions on and actions of energy-water collaborative management.

控制能源消费总量以及调整能源结构是应对气候变化的重要措施，而不同能源的生产和使用又需要水资源作为保障，因此在制定能源战略和气候变化政策时，必须综合考虑水资源约束。本研究以碳税为研究对象，分析气候变化政策对能源行业水资源需求量的影响。研究在文献调研以及重点能源行业实地调研和数据分析的基础上，构建可计算一般均衡模型，分析中国实施碳税政策对能源行业需求量以及结构的影响，结合不同能源种类以及不同技术选择的水耗系数，分析碳税政策可能对能源行业水资源需求量造成的影响。最后结合上述研究成果提出基于碳税设置以及技术选择的能源行业水资源消耗的优化管理建议。研究成果将会为政府实施能源与水资源协同管理的行动决策提供科学支撑。

我国目前面临着严峻的节能减排压力，中国政府采取了一系列的控制政策以实现温室气体控制的目标，这些政策的实施会对中国能源的消费以及能源结构产生重要影响。同时，能源与水资源之间存在紧密的联系，能源行业是主要的耗水行业之一，使得这些政策的实施会对水资源产生“溢出效应”的影响。因此，本研究针对能源政策对水资源影响的“溢出效应”开展研究。研究采用“自上而下”的动态一般均衡方法，分析了中国实施能源税政策对能源生产量的影响。基于对能源行业的调研与分析，评估了能源政策对水资源的影响。研究发现能源政策有显著的节能与节水的协同效应。在全国层面研究的基础上，针对江苏省开展了进一步的深入分析，为江苏省能源与水的协同管理提供了支撑。