喀斯特地区水资源对社会经济发展的支撑能力研究

In the water resources as the main constraints of Karst area in China, water resources have become the connection between human economic activities and ecological environment, to solve the contradiction of water resources supply and demand has become one of the key issues affecting social economy development area of Karst. First of all, in this study, to the northwest of Guangxi as study area, comprehensive, systematic collection of information and data of natural and ecological environment in Northwest Guangxi in recent ten years, including nearly ten years in air temperature, precipitation and other relevant meteorological data, the water conservancy data, vegetation data; the study area for nearly ten years the utilization of water resources and social economic data (including social development of population, economy, etc.) is established, and by means of geographical information system (GIS) analysis and management of spatial and attribute data, spatial and temporal dynamic data corresponding to the study area based data set are set up. Second, based on the support vector machine method, proposed by Sullivan index from the scarcity of water resources (Water Poverty Index, WPI), exponential model is constructed to support the water resource (Water Resources Supporting Capacity Index, WSPI), the index and evaluation support ability evaluation model of water resources in Karst area have been established, at the same time, in recent ten years two level administrative unit, county, city WSPI is calculated, the study area water resources supporting capacity levels are classified. To study the supporting capacity of water resources spatial structure, analyses the relationship between population, GDP index, discuss the water area in the Karst area of air distribution and water two mechanism, so as to provide scientific support for the water resources policy and the social and economic development planning and decision-making. Third, the carrying capacity on the basis of exploring and understanding of Karst area water resources crisis evolution and water resources research , the coupling mechanism of the utilization of water resources and social economy have been studied, and different water resources utilization water resources under the condition of shortage have been analysed and numerical simulated, the effect of water shortage factors in Karst area have been recognition, and the critical threshold of crisis of water resources shortage, grasp the critical identification have been determined. Fourth, the spatial pattern of regional water resources supporting capacity, and analyze its relationship with population, GDP and other social and economic indicators are discussed, and through the GIS spatial analysis and overlay analysis, and the difference between the spatial distribution of water resources and water area of mechanism of Karst area water resources shortage have been discussed, mechanism and rules are known.

在以水资源为主要制约条件的我国广大喀斯特地区，水资源成为维系人类社会经济活动和生态环境的纽带，解决水资源供需矛盾成为影响喀斯特地区社会经济发展的关键问题之一。以桂西北为研究区，基于支持向量机综合评价方法，综合考虑喀斯特地区自产水和上游来水条件，构建水资源支撑指数(WSPI)，定量描述喀斯特地区的水资源条件对区域社会经济发展的支撑能力；计算该地区市、县两级行政单元的WSPI；划分水资源支撑能力等级，探讨研究区水资源支撑能力空问格局，分析其与人口、GDP等指标的关系；进而讨论喀斯特地区缺水区域的空问分布及其缺水机理的差异性，确定喀斯特地区水资源短缺的临界阈值和临界标识，以期为水资源政策制定以及社会经济发展规划等宏观决策提供科学支撑。

在喀斯特地区，由于其生态环境的脆弱性和人类生存条件的恶劣性，水更成为维系人类社会经济活动和生态环境的纽带。项目主要研究内容和重要结果包括：（1）采用科技文本挖掘分析工具CiteSpace,分析并绘制国内水资源研究的知识图谱。（2）选择广西隆安县为研究区，以年度内不同季节的LANDSAT 8 OLI遥感影像为数据来源，采用空间分析方法得到不同季节间水资源空间分布变化量，再对研究区水资源源分布和季节间变化的景观格局特征进行分析。（3）以百色市田阳县右江河谷为研究样区，定量比较喀斯特地区的高分一号与Landsat8影像归一化水体指数（NDWI），对两类影像的水体识别阈值和精度进行比较，进而得到两类影像的归一化水体指数的相互定量关系。(4)以喀斯特地区的百色市为研究样区，设置非任意控制变量并进行DEA效率分析，定量分析不同DEA模型下的水资源利用效率。(5) 采用随机前沿生产函数方法，探明2010-2017年广西14个地市农业水资源利用效率的变动状况和耦合关系。这些成果加深了对喀斯特地区水资源研究的自然属性和社会属性的理解，有利于提高区域水资源利用效率。另外还从水资源空间格局定量分析、水资源季节变化的定量特征、水资源利用效率及其与社会经济发展耦合关系进行了研究。